THE MAIN BASE OF THE NEW ECONOMIC GEOPOLITICS: MERSIN

Ayhan Kızıltan, ben@ayhankiziltan.com.tr, Mersin, Türkiye 20/03/026

What I Have Argued for Over the Years

For many years, I have consistently made the same case: investments in Türkiye should no longer be concentrated in only a handful of established centers, but should instead be distributed across the country in a rational, balanced, and strategic way. Mersin and the Çukurova Basin are among the strongest candidates of this new era. For years, on my own website, I have addressed the relationship between the port, the airport, the hinterland, and planning along the same axis. In my articles titled The Great Çukurova Economic Basin, The Mersin Hinterland, What Kind of Mersin?, and The Mersin Model, I explained that Mersin-Çukurova is not merely a cluster of cities, but, if properly planned, could become an economic basin on a global scale.

Today, the picture created by the war in the Middle East and the global power struggle once again shows that this view is not a wish, but a strategic reality. The world is no longer looking only at glittering showcases. It is looking at geographies that can remain standing in times of crisis, sustain production, and keep trade chains intact.

The Same Warning from Hormuz Strait to the Taiwan Strait

The fault lines of global trade are shifting. On one side there is the war and energy crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, and on the other, the renewed military pressure around Taiwan. According to Reuters reports dated March 15-19, 2026, China has once again intensified its military flights around Taiwan, while Taiwan approved nearly 9 billion dollars in U.S. arms deals. In the same period, China also tried to leverage the Middle East energy crisis by offering Taiwan “energy security in return for reunification,” and Taiwan rejected it. In other words, today the world is experiencing fragility not only on oil and natural gas routes, but also on semiconductor and advanced technology production lines. If Hormuz is shaken, energy is shaken. If Taiwan is shaken, technology is shaken.

The fact that the two great powers, Washington and Beijing, are increasingly shaping the world through a logic of power projection and pressure is driving humanity not toward a more stable order, but toward a permanent crisis economy. This logic is replacing free trade with concepts such as “reliable partner,” “nearshoring,” “our camp,” and “strategic dependency.” The world economy is now priced not only by efficiency, but also by security.

Why Is Türkiye a Candidate for a Safe Base?

This is exactly where Türkiye stands out. Türkiye is not merely a country located geographically between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. It is also a country with republican experience, state memory, a culture of production, and multimodal transport infrastructure. The Constitution of the Republic of Türkiye defines the state as a republic and as a “democratic, secular, and social state governed by the rule of law.” Invest in Türkiye, the country’s official investment agency, also emphasizes Türkiye’s ambition to become a nodal point in the value chains between Europe and Asia, its investments in logistics and transport infrastructure, and its position linked to production bases.

This is precisely what I have been emphasizing for years: an investor does not seek profit alone. An investor seeks security, seeks the rule of law, seeks predictability, seeks a system that can keep operating in times of crisis. Despite all its shortcomings, Türkiye is one of the countries capable of establishing such a foundation. Therefore, the reality revealed by the war in the Middle East is not only a threat, but also a historic opportunity for Türkiye.

The Strength of Mersin-Çukurova: A Basin That Produces, Carries, and Distributes

But the real question is where, within Türkiye, we should be looking. My answer is clear: the Mersin-Çukurova Basin. Because the strength of this region does not come from a single advantage, but from its integrated structure. Here there is a port, there is a free zone, there is agriculture, there is industry, there is a broad hinterland. According to official information, Çukurova International Airport has an annual passenger capacity of 9 million. When the Mersin Port expansion project is completed, the target is to increase container volume from 2.6 million TEU to 3.6 million TEU. If the government also urgently implements the Mersin Main Container Port project, the container volume between Mersin and İskenderun, together with the existing and planned various ports, will increase significantly. The Mersin-Adana-Gaziantep high-speed railway backbone is also being designed as a line that will connect Mersin not only to the coast, but more firmly to the interior and the east.

For this reason, Mersin-Çukurova is not merely a port city. This basin has the potential to establish a deeper economic model in which goods are not only transferred, but produced, processed, stored, and distributed to the world. That is exactly what I mean when I speak of a “basin.”

The Burden Marmara Can No Longer Carry

At this point, another reality must be stated openly: Marmara, and especially Istanbul, has become a center that is increasingly struggling to carry the entire economic burden of Türkiye. According to data from the Governorship of Mersin, Mersin’s population at the end of 2024 was 1,954,279. According to TomTom’s 2025 data, the average traffic congestion level was 39.2 percent in Mersin, while it was 62 percent in Istanbul. Istanbul’s 2025 population data also points to a level of 15.7 million. This picture shows not only the population gap, but also a mounting congestion.

Politics has for a long time chosen the easy way out. Decisions are still mostly made with an Istanbul-centered mindset, investments are still concentrated in the same basin, and then this is called development. Yet this is not development. It is unbalanced growth. It means inflating Istanbul a little more while keeping Anatolia waiting a little longer. Türkiye’s real need is not to burden Marmara even further, but to establish new economic backbones.

Dubai’s Showcase, Mersin’s Depth

When comparing Dubai with Mersin-Çukurova Zone, one must speak not with emotion, but with reason. Today, Dubai is very strong in terms of brand power, free-zone experience, financial visibility, and logistics scale. By contrast, Mersin-Çukurova Zone does not yet have the same global investment perception. That is its weak side, and it must be acknowledged.

But that is not the whole story. The official state portal of the United Arab Emirates shows that it operates under a federal structure in which each of the seven emirates has its own ruler. The Republic of Türkiye, by contrast, is constitutionally a republic that claims to be a democratic, secular, and social state governed by the rule of law. This difference is not merely political. It also matters in terms of long-term investment culture, social depth, human resources, and institutional sustainability.

My view is this: Dubai may be today’s showcase; but Mersin-Çukurova, if planned correctly, can become tomorrow’s more balanced, more production-based, and deeper basin. Because Dubai grew primarily as a global trade and distribution showcase, whereas Mersin-Çukurova has a structure capable of bringing together agriculture, industry, logistics, and the Anatolian hinterland in one place. This is not a difference to be underestimated.

The European Union’s Strategic Autonomy Cannot Be Built Without Türkiye

This picture is also highly important from the perspective of the European Union. Europe today sees, on one hand, the pressure of excessive dependence on the U.S. security umbrella, and on the other, the cost of dependence on China for production and technology. According to Reuters, the European Commission is trying to reduce dependence on China through new domestic content rules along a “Made in EU” line. Von der Leyen has also openly said that Europe must become more independent. Kaja Kallas, meanwhile, argued both that the U.S. is trying to divide Europe and that Europe still remains dependent on American defense procurement. In other words, Europe wants strategic autonomy, but has not yet been able to fully establish it.

My view on this is clear: if the European Union wants to reduce excessive security dependence on the United States, balance excessive production dependence on China, and establish real strategic autonomy, it cannot do so by leaving Türkiye outside. For Europe, Türkiye is not merely a neighboring country; it is one of the indispensable partners in terms of energy, logistics, production, defense, and demographic dynamism. No strategic autonomy that fails to take Türkiye into account at Europe’s southeastern gateway can be realistic.

The Ankara-Mersin Industrial Backbone

As I also emphasized from the podium of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry, the real move that will relieve Marmara is to spread production southward, into the Mersin-Çukurova basin, and from there into the interior of Anatolia. The state is taking a correct step in considering new industrial investment zones along the Samsun-Mersin line. But the truly major transformation lies hidden in the new production backbones to be established along the Ankara-Mersin and Eastern Anatolia-Mersin axes.

The Ankara-Mersin/Çukurova Industrial Corridor that I propose is not merely a chain of factories. It is a prosperity backbone that connects arid lands to production, develops towns, and integrates villages into product and supply chains. The Eastern Anatolia-Mersin axis should be considered with the same logic. In this way, production will not be concentrated in only a few centers, but will spread through the capillaries of Anatolia. Mersin Port and Çukurova’s infrastructure will then become the main gateway opening this production to the world.

The Greatest Threat: Suffocating the Opportunity Through Lack of Planning

Here, the greatest danger lies not outside, but inside. That danger is lack of planning, fragmented decision-making, and a short-term outlook. If you think of the port separately, the airport separately, industry separately, and urbanization separately, you will suffocate this great opportunity before it is even born. Indeed, in my own writings for years I have argued that if the area north of the port is burdened with misguided planning that will squeeze logistics, Mersin will be left breathless.

Therefore, the issue is not merely attracting investment. The issue is to establish a new geography of production with reason, planning, and state seriousness. Addressing Mersin with a “Special Planning and Pilot Region” approach, and considering the port, free zone, airport, railway, industrial zones, and settlement pattern under a single strategy, is no longer a matter of choice, but a national necessity.

Conclusion: The Issue Is Not Seeing, but Building

The war in the Middle East has shown us energy fragility. The China-Taiwan tension is once again reminding us of technological fragility. The world has entered a new era. In this era, the winners will not only be those who produce at the lowest cost, but those who establish the safest, most resilient, and best-planned basins.

Türkiye is a strong country in this age. Mersin-Çukurova Zone is one of the strongest candidate basins of this age. Its strengths are clear: port, airport, agriculture, industry, and hinterland come together in the same geography. Its weak side is also clear: its global investment perception and brand power are not yet at Dubai’s level. The opportunity is before us: as energy and technology chokepoints become fragile at the same time, the world is searching for new safe centers. The threat is also obvious: if we allow this region to grow without planning, we will erode its advantage with our own hands.

The conclusion I reach is clear: Türkiye will grow not by inflating Marmara even more, but by building new backbones such as Mersin-Çukurova Zone. Europe, too, can move closer to real strategic autonomy not by excluding Türkiye, but by advancing together with Türkiye. This is not the time to watch this potential. It is the time to build it with a main container port, smart industrial corridors, and a strong institutional foundation based on the rule of law.

In the new age, the winners will not be those whose showcases shine, but those whose backbones are strong.

Until my next article, stay well.

Footnote:

Çukurova International Airport currently operates with an annual passenger capacity of 9 million and a staged expansion structure: DHMI’s (General Directorate Of State Airports Authority) strategic plan indicates that the first two phases provide roughly 8 million passengers a year, with third-phase investments to start once demand reaches 9 million, while earlier official project descriptions pointed to a full-build potential of up to 30 million passengers annually.

Mersin International Port is being expanded from 2.6 million TEU to 3.6 million TEU, with the upgraded terminal designed to handle two 400-meter mega container vessels simultaneously. The wider Eastern Mediterranean logistics arc also includes LimakPort İskenderun, with capacity above 1 million TEU, and Ceyport Taşucu, with listed annual capacity of 100,000 TEU in containers and 3 million tons in general and bulk cargo. In parallel, official planning has continued to keep additional container-port investment in the region, including the Mersin container-port studies, on the agenda.